7月4日，新加坡荣誉国务资政吴作栋先生应清华大学邀请参加第九届世界和平论坛。吴资政通过视频模式在世界和平论坛的大会上发言，谈到了如何促进各国之间相互了解、增强对彼此的信心和信任，重振区域合作，共同推进亚洲和平及繁荣。

我也在同日参加了该论坛的“供应链重组与全球化走向”分组讨论，分享了我对各国该如何共同改善全球化，并构建更强健更具弹性的供应链的看法。我们应该携手确保全球贸易原则与时俱进，达成新协议和规定，继续推进区域经济一体，化全球化的可持续发展，共同努力建设一个更具韧性、联系紧密、全球化程度更高的世界。

以下分享新加坡荣誉国务资政吴作栋先生的演讲全文。

SPEECH BY ESM GOH CHOK TONG AT THE 9TH WORLD PEACE FORUM, 4 JULY 2021

Theme: Post-Pandemic International Security Cooperation: Preserving and Practicing Multilateralism

Panel: Reinvigorating Regional Cooperation

Speech Title: Prerequisites for a Peaceful and Prosperous Asia

实现亚洲和平与繁荣的必备条件

1 Thank you for inviting me to speak at the 9thWorld Peace Forum (WPF). When I last spoke at the 8th WPF in 2019, I called out the growing trust deficit between China and the US as well as the fraying consensus on free trade and globalisation. These forces are still in play today.

2 Now, we have the COVID-19 pandemic. This black swan underlines the importance of international cooperation. Because no country is an island.

3 I want to focus on the fundamentals needed to reinvigorate Regional Cooperation.

4 Theoretically, it should be easier to cooperate regionally than globally. After all, we live in the same neighbourhood and there are fewer countries to deal with. As the Chinese saying goes, 远亲不如近邻. A neighbour is better than a relative who lives far away.

5 However, this is not always true. So I would like to add a qualifier, “helpful”. I insert this qualifier because we all know that if neighbours are at loggerheads, faraway friends are better!

6 Asia is a diverse continent of many different ethnicities, languages, religions, cultures and civilisations. And it is still burdened by lingering historical legacies and disputes. So it is to be expected that some countries look to faraway friends to secure themselves.

7 But this does not remove the need for building good neighbourly ties. Hence, the importance of reinvigorating regional cooperation.

8 How? By building understanding, confidence and trust.

9 The most important element in this process is to have a shared goal for all countries in Asia to work towards.

10 My proposed vision is a Peaceful and Prosperous Asia. It is a simple and clear goal. No one should disagree. Although achieving it is far from straightforward, it can be done.

Peace in Asia

11 Let me illustrate with the example of ASEAN. ASEAN was formed about 55 years ago. Five countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore – came together to promote political, economic and social stability in Southeast Asia amid rising tensions in Asia. They were not politically close. You might say they were distant neighbours. Their leaders, Suharto, Tunku Abdul Rahman, Ferdinand Marcos, Thanom Kittikachorn and Lee Kuan Yew had the wisdom to advance their national interests through collective interests. These national leaders had the vision of international statesmen. The same vision motivated ASEAN to expand to 10 member states. All member states are very different from one another in terms of geography, history, political systems, languages, religions and stages of economic development. But they share the same vision of a peaceful and prosperous Southeast Asia.

12 Recent developments in Myanmar are a litmus test for the ASEAN Way. ASEAN needs to act quickly to implement the Five-Point Consensus reached during the ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting. This will be a crucial step to facilitate Myanmar’s return to peace, stability and normalcy.

13 ASEAN Member States have enshrined their principles of cooperation in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. Beyond ASEAN, more than 30 other partners have also acceded to the Treaty. These include the US, China, Japan, South Korea, and India. The treaty commits countries to: respect each other’s independence and sovereignty; not interfere in one another’s internal affairs; and settle differences and disputes by peaceful means and in accordance with the international rule of law.

14 To reinvigorate regional cooperation in Asia, I offer three more principles. First, maximise areas of cooperation, and minimise areas of dispute. Where possible, we should try to resolve issues amicably and rationally. Where possible, compromise. Even when resolution is not possible, disagreements and disputes in some areas need not stand in the way of cooperation and collaboration in other areas that are mutually beneficial. Second, prosper thy neighbours, not beggar them. Let’s play a positive-sum game, not a zero-sum game. It is better to cooperate to grow and share the pie equitably than fight over our share of a fixed pie. Third, reflect and learn from history, and not be shackled by it. This is easier said than done as histories shape citizens’ collective memories and sense of national pride. But if we cannot let go of historical wounds and wrongs, and if we can never forgive, we will not be able to move forward.

15 These principles will provide the overarching framework for a peaceful Asia that all stakeholders respect and abide by.

16 Who are these stakeholders? China is the principal protagonist. Napoleon once said, “Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.” In the 1980s and 1990s, after Deng Xiaoping kick-started China’s approach of reform and opening up, the key question within the international community was, “When will China rise?” After China’s accession to the WTO and explosive growth, the question evolved to, “How will China rise?” Then-President Hu Jintao assured the world of a “peaceful rise”. Lee Kuan Yew pointed out to Zheng Bijian, former Central Party School Executive Vice President , that “any rise is something that is startling”. Indeed, Lee Kuan Yew was right. China’s rise has startled and disconcerted the US. We should heed Graham Allison’s warning of the Thucydides Trap. Today, the question is, “Now that China has risen, what does it mean for my country and for the world? Will China play a positive-sum game?”

17 China holds the key to Asia’s future and to reinvigorating regional cooperation. In 2003, at the first ASEAN-China Summit, I observed to then-Premier Wen Jiabao that China was like an elephant entering a swimming pool where there were other smaller animals. No matter how gentle the elephant was, it still needed to be careful of its every move, because it might, even unintentionally, step on the toes of the other animals. Two decades on, the elephant is much bigger and still growing, but the size of the pool is still the same.

18 The principles I shared earlier on regional cooperation apply to all countries. But in the world of realpolitik, the behaviour of the larger and more powerful countries determines the peace and prosperity of Asia.

19 I have been to China many times since my first visit in 1971. I have had the good fortune of meeting all the top Chinese leaders, from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping. I have positive impressions and good vibes of China. I believe that China is focused on uplifting its people through economic growth, rather than seeking hegemony in Asia or challenging the US for global dominance. I am convinced that China’s growth is positive for Asia and the world.

20 But there are people who fear that China may become a less than gentle elephant. Accurately or inaccurately, critics have drawn attention to China’s “wolf warrior diplomacy”. This term shapes people’s perceptions of an increasingly muscular and aggressive China. While I understand why China needs to stand up firmly for its interests, how China conducts its diplomacy does shape how others view China.

21 In May, President Xi Jinping urged Politburo members to portray an image of a “credible, lovable, and respectable” China. President Xi’s words are welcomed. The world will no doubt be watching China’s actions closely to see what will change and what will not change.

22 We cannot have real regional cooperation if China does not have the confidence and trust of its neighbours. Achieving this requires more than a change in the tone, style and language of public communications.

Prosperity in Asia

23 Let me now turn to prosperity, and the three features of a prosperous Asia.

24 First, a prosperous Asia is interconnectedthrough the free flow of goods, services and investments, within Asia and beyond. In the near term, our top priority should be to keep supply chains intact. Trade, especially in essential supplies, can then continue to flow unimpeded. Cooperation on the digital economy is also key. Countries should jointly develop the interoperable frameworks needed for an open and integrated global digital economy.

25 Most importantly, we should press on with economic integration in the region through multilateral trade agreements. Last November, 15 Asia-Pacific nations, including China and Singapore, signed the landmark Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, despite challenging circumstances. The RCEP boosts confidence in regional trade and investment and opens up new opportunities for our businesses and peoples. This is timely as we move ahead to secure our region’s recovery from the disruptive economic impact of COVID-19.

26 I encourage China to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or CPTPP. Joining the CPTPP will signal China’s intent to abide by higher standards of free trade and economic integration. It will have a positive impact on Asia’s prosperity.

27 The second feature of a prosperous Asia is a Green Asia. As countries around the world work to recover from COVID-19, Asia must build back cleaner and greener from the pandemic and realise our joint commitments to the Paris Agreement goals.

28 Third, a prosperous Asia is innovative and inclusive. It is teeming with new ideas to improve the lives of its peoples. It joins hands to ensure that economic development and regional cooperation lift all boats.

29 To make all these ideas a reality, we need the appropriate fora for Asia’s leaders to come together for substantive discussion and collaboration.

30 Both the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Plus Three Summit can play this role. They are established and inclusive multilateral platforms. But first, leaders must step up to the plate and set the agenda for cooperation. Not only as national leaders, but also as international statesmen. To propose a common vision for Asia. To tackle regional challenges together. To initiate win-win collaborations. To bring all on board with ideas for a peaceful and prosperous Asia.

31 How can the World Peace Forum contribute towards building a peaceful and prosperous Asia? This is my suggestion. Many countries in Asia have their own annual forums and conferences that bring together top minds to discuss important regional issues. They can multiply the reach of these messages and ideas several folds if, once every two or three years, they get together to organise a joint multinational forum. This is a collaboration amongst a consortium of think tanks across Asia to promote a common vision of peace and prosperity. It will be a concrete example of reinvigorating regional cooperation. The World Peace Forum can pilot this with a small group of 4 or 5 other think tanks in the region. Think of this as a Track 2 channel which explores new ideas for regional cooperation, especially to address longer-term challenges such as green growth. Focus on quality of participation rather than quantity of attendance. The outcomes of the discussions must be such that the leaders and peoples of Asia will take notice. Hopefully, some of these ideas will be taken up in multilateral platforms like the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Plus Three Summit, and be translated into reality.

A Peaceful and Prosperous Asia

32 Let me conclude. I grew up in an Asia that was neither peaceful nor prosperous. Eight months after I was born, bombs were dropped on Singapore. I am grateful that we now live in a region that enjoys relative peace and moderate prosperity. But I still worry about bombs being dropped once again if relations between neighbours go wrong in the future. Hence, our work to advance regional cooperation is never done.

33 This can be the Asian century of peace and prosperity, if first, leaders in Asia are international statesmen who look beyond their national interests; leaders who see that regional cooperation consolidates peace and advances prosperity; leaders who understand that the benefits accruing from cooperation are more than if they were to go it alone. Second, our leaders agree on a shared vision for Asia and a set of common core principles to abide by. Third, countries in the region come up with new and substantive ideas and programmes to collaborate on.

34 Asia faces many severe challenges, including COVID-19, geopolitical rivalries and macroeconomic risks. Now, more than ever, is the time to reinvigorate regional cooperation. Only by doing so can we secure a better future for Asia. Only by doing so can we enjoy sustained peace and prosperity.

* * * * *

1. 感谢主办方邀请我出席第九届世界和平论坛。我在2019年的第八届世界和平论坛发言时，就指出中国和美国之间的信任赤字正逐渐扩大，以及世界各国对自由贸易和全球化的共识也逐渐出现裂痕。这两个现象至今依然存在。

2. 如今，我们也遭受2019冠状病毒疾病的冲击。这起“黑天鹅”事件凸显了国际合作的重要性，因为没有一个国家能闭关自守。

3. 在此，我想要着重讨论重振区域合作所需的根本原则。

4. 按理说，区域合作应该比全球合作来得容易。毕竟，我们都生活在同一个地区，需要打交道的国家也比较少。俗话说得好：远亲不如近邻。

5. 然而事实并非总是如此。因此，我想在“近邻”之前补充一个要素，那就是“有助益的”近邻。因为我们都知道，如果邻国之间势如水火，那就还比不上远方的朋友！

6. 亚洲国家非常多元化，不论在种族、语言、宗教、文化和历史文明方面都截然不同。时至今日，亚洲仍受到一些历史遗留下来的问题和争端所困扰。因此，一些国家选择依靠远方的朋友，以维护国家安全，是意料中事。

7. 尽管如此，我们还是需要和邻国建立友好的关系。因此，重振区域合作更显得重要。

8. 要做到这点，就得促进各国之间相互了解、增强对彼此的信心和信任。9. 在这个过程中，最重要的元素是所有亚洲国家都必须携手，朝同一个目标迈进。

10. 我所提议的愿景是一个和平与繁荣的亚洲。这个愿景简单明确，我相信大家不会有异议。要实现这个目标虽然并非易事，但它是可行的。

亚洲的和平

11. 我以亚细安为例来说明这一点。亚细安大约在55年前成立，最初由印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国和新加坡五个国家组成。当时，尽管亚洲局势日益紧张，这五个国家还是决定携手合作，促进东南亚的政治、经济和社会稳定。它们之间的政治关系并不紧密，若说它们关系犹如远邻，并不为过。这些成员国的领导人，即苏哈托、东姑阿都拉曼、马科斯、他侬•吉滴卡宗和李光耀，都具备了高超的政治智慧。他们通过争取亚细安的共同利益，来推进各自国家的利益。这几位国家领袖，其实都具有国际政治家的远见卓识。相同的愿景促使亚细安逐渐扩大到10个成员国。所有成员国在地理、历史、政治制度、语言、宗教和经济发展程度等方面都截然不同。但它们都拥有共同的愿景，那就是建立和平与繁荣的东南亚。

12. 缅甸局势的近期发展，对“亚细安之道”形成严峻考验。亚细安需要迅速采取行动，落实亚细安特别峰会期间所达成的五点共识。这将是协助缅甸恢复和平稳定和常态的关键步骤。

13. 亚细安成员国已在《东南亚友好合作条约》中，确立亚细安的合作原则。除了亚细安的10个成员国之外，目前有超过30个伙伴国也加入了这项条约。这些国家包括美国、中国、日本、韩国和印度。这项条约要求各国遵循以下原则：尊重彼此的独立和主权；不干涉彼此的内政；以及以和平的方式，并根据国际法规，解决分歧和争端。

14. 为了重振亚洲的区域合作，我想提出另外三个原则。首先，扩大合作，减少纠纷。我们应该尽可能以友好和理性的态度解决分歧，尽可能相互妥协。即使无法解决，我们也不应该让彼此间的纠纷阻碍我们在其他互惠互利的领域中寻求携手合作的契机。第二，共享繁荣，而不是以邻为壑。让我们进行合作博弈，而不是零和游戏。各国携手合作，把经济利益的大饼做大，然后公平地分配给各方，比争夺有限的利益更理想。第三，反思历史，从中学习，而不受其束缚。这当然知易行难，毕竟历史塑造了人民的共同记忆，以及对国家的自豪感。不过，如果我们无法放下历史遗留下来的伤痕与包袱，也不愿意冰释前嫌，我们将无法前进。

15. 这些原则会构成一个所有利益攸关方都尊重并遵守的总体框架，以促进亚洲的和平。

16. 这些利益攸关方当中，中国扮演了最主要的角色。拿破仑曾说过：“让中国沉睡吧，当这头睡狮醒来时，世界将会为之颤动。”在20世纪80至90年代期间，邓小平先生实施了中国的改革开放政策之后，国际社会主要关注的问题是：中国什么时候会崛起？随后，中国正式加入世界贸易组织，经历了爆炸式的增长，各国关注的焦点就变成了“中国会如何崛起？”时任中国国家主席胡锦涛向全世界保证，中国会“和平崛起”。当时，李光耀先生就对中共中央党校前常务副校长郑必坚提到：“任何崛起都是令人感到震惊的事情”。李光耀先生说对了，中国的崛起震惊了美国，让它感到不安。我们应该听取格雷厄姆·艾利森（Graham Allison）提出有关“修昔底德陷阱”（ Thucydides Trap ）的警示。如今，大家关注的问题则是：中国现在崛起了，这对我的国家，以及对全世界来说，意味着什么？中国会不会采取合作博弈的模式？

17. 中国可说是亚洲未来发展，和重振区域合作的关键。我曾在2003年的第一届亚细安-中国峰会上和时任中国国务院总理温家宝说过，中国就像一头巨象，正要踏入泳池，而泳池内已经有其他体型较小的动物。无论巨象多么温和，它仍须要格外留意自己的一举一动，因为它有可能，甚至会无意间，踩着其他动物。二十年后，这头巨象的体型变大了，而且还在长大，泳池的面积却没有改变。

18. 我之前提到的有关区域合作原则，适用于每个国家。只是，在现实政治的国际格局中，一些较大和势力较强的国家的举止，往往会决定亚洲的和平与繁荣。

19. 自1971年起，我曾多次访华。我也有幸和多名中国最高领导人会晤，包括从邓小平先生至习近平主席等多位重要领导人。我对中国持有良好和正面的印象。我相信中国会致力于通过自身的经济发展来改善人民的生活条件，而不会在亚洲寻求称霸，或挑战美国在国际舞台上的主导角色。我坚信，中国的经济增长对亚洲，乃至全世界，都是有利的。

20. 但是，也有人担心中国这头“温和的大象”将不再那么温和了。无论正确与否，这些批评者已引起了外界对中国“战狼外交”的关注，这个标签也必然会促使人们产生对中国在外交上更为强势的印象。我虽然能理解中国必须坚定维护自身利益，但中国的外交姿态确实会影响其他国家对它的看法。

21. 今年五月，习近平主席向中共中央政治局委员强调，中国应该努力塑造“可信、可爱、可敬”的国际形象。习主席的话值得我们欢迎。毫无疑问，世界将密切地关注中国的行为，并留意中国的任何改变。

22. 要实现真正的区域合作，前提是中国必须获得邻国的信心和信任。然而，要做到这点，单靠改变对外宣传沟通的基调、风格和语言，是不足够的。

亚洲的繁荣

23. 接下来，我将讨论繁荣的亚洲所必须具备的三大特点。

24. 首先，亚洲必须在货物、服务以及投资方面，对内对外都保持互联互通。短期内，我们的首要任务应该是维持供应链正常运行，才能确保贸易物流通畅无阻，尤其是必需品。在数码经济上展开合作也是关键。世界各国应该共同制定具有互通性的数码治理框架与准则，以便推动全球数码经济的开放及一体化。

25. 最重要的是，我们应该通过多边贸易协定，持续推动区域经济一体化。去年11月，15个亚太国家，包括中国和新加坡，克服重重挑战，正式签署了具有标志性的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)。这项协定提振了对亚太区域贸易与投资的信心，也为我们的企业和人民创造更多机会。我们正试图促进本区域经济复苏，缓解冠病疫情所带来的经济冲击，因此这项协定来得正是时候。

26. 我鼓励中国加入 《跨太平洋伙伴全面进展协定》(CPTPP)。 中国的加入将向世界发出信号，表示中国愿意参与更高水平的自由贸易和经济一体化进程。这对亚洲的繁荣将带来正面的效益。

27. 其次，一个繁荣的亚洲也是绿色的亚洲。在世界各国努力从冠病疫情中恢复之际，亚洲必须以更清洁、更环保的方式带动经济复苏，并落实我们对《巴黎协定》目标所作出的共同承诺。

28. 第三，一个繁荣昌盛的亚洲，不但创新，更具有包容性。各国不断想出新点子，改善人民的生活。各国也会携手同心，通过经济发展和区域合作，让所有人民都能享受到经济繁荣的果实。

29. 要实现这些个构想，我们需要适当的论坛，让亚洲领导人齐聚一堂，进行实质性的讨论与合作。

30. 东亚峰会以及亚细安加三峰会都可以扮演这个角色。它们都是重要而具有包容性的多边平台。但首先，领导人必须果断行动，为区域合作制定议程。他们不仅要以国家领导人的身份，更要以国际政治家的身份这么做。为亚洲提出共同愿景、一起克服本区域所面临的挑战、带头提倡双赢的合作项目，以打造和平与繁荣的亚洲为目标，带着所有人民一同前进。

31. 世界和平论坛如何能够为打造和平繁荣的亚洲做出贡献？以下是我的建议: 许多亚洲国家都各自举办年度论坛及会议，汇集顶级专才讨论重要的区域问题。这些论坛和会议所产生的信息和构想，如果通过每两年或三年举办一次联合跨国论坛加以传达，就能传达给多上好几倍的人们。这可以是亚洲多个智囊团的合作项目，旨在促进和平与繁荣的共同愿景，也会是重振区域合作的实例。世界和平论坛可以同本区域的四、五个智囊团一起试行这个项目。这个项目可以视为非官方的讨论渠道，为区域合作探讨新点子，特别是在应对较长期挑战方面，例如绿色增长。主办方也应该更注重讨论的质量，而不是参与的人数。讨论的成果，必须引起亚洲领导人和人民的注意。我希望部分讨论成果可以在东亚峰会和亚细安加三峰会等多边平台上获得进一步讨论，并加以实现。

和平与繁荣的亚洲

32. 让我做个总结。我生长在一个既不和平，也不繁荣的亚洲。我出世的八个月后，新加坡就遭炸弹轰炸。我很庆幸，我们现在生活在一个相对和平与繁荣的地区。不过，我还是会担心，万一邻国之间关系恶化，我们可能会再次被战火蹂躏。因此，推动区域合作，是一项永不停歇的工作。

33. 本世纪可以是亚洲和平与繁荣的世纪，但前提是：第一，亚洲领导人必须具备国际政治家的高瞻远瞩，能超越自身国家利益，明白区域合作能巩固和平，促进繁荣；更了解到展开合作，能比单独行动带来更大的利益。第二，我们的领导人必须就亚洲的共同愿景和一套共同核心原则达成共识。第三，区域各国都提出实质的新点子和方案，供大家展开合作。

34. 亚洲面临许多严峻挑战，包括冠病、地缘政治所造成的竞争，以及宏观经济风险。我们现在比以往任何时候都更需要重振区域合作，只有这样，我们才能为亚洲争取更美好的未来，并享有持续的和平与繁荣。