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中国疫情对美国经济有利?诺奖得主批美商务部长不仅坏而且蠢 | 外媒说

中国发生的新型冠状病毒疫情,“将有助于加速工作岗位回流北美,其中可能部分回流美国,部分则流向墨西哥。”

“I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America, some to [the] US, probably some to Mexico as well,” Ross said.

《纽约时报》报道截图

他在《纽约时报》上发表专栏文章直言,真心为美国捏把汗。

克鲁格曼表示,罗斯愚蠢的评论(boneheaded remarks)足以让人怀疑,美国政府这帮人能否应对好任何一场不是自己造成的危机。玛利亚飓风就因为美国政府处理不当,卷走几千条人命。

美国商务部长威尔伯·罗斯

“这个商务部长刚刚挂掉‘微生物经济学’课!”克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)毫不客气地讽刺罗斯。作为诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、著名经济学家,克鲁格曼在文中给这些大放厥词的美国高层好好补了一堂“微生物经济学课”。

罗斯思维病症的根源:不懂21世纪经济学。

克鲁格曼在文中写道,罗斯认为美国将从疫情中获益,除非是压根不懂21世纪的全球经济,才会这么想。

Now, you might think that this implies an upside to China’s troubles, that disrupting China’s vast manufacturing sector would offer opportunities to producers in other countries, including the United States. That is, you might think this if you knew nothing about 21st-century economics.

第一讲:全球价值链

克鲁格曼认为,罗斯和他的同僚们显然并不明白,现代制造业不同于几代人以前的制造业,不再是不同国家工业部门间的“直接竞争”。克鲁格曼进一步解释说,如今我们生活在全球价值链的世界里,任何国家进口的大部分都不是消费品,而是其自身生产过程中所使用的“中间商品”。

What Ross and his colleagues apparently still don’t understand that modern manufacturing isn’t like manufacturing a couple of generations ago, when different countries’ industrial sectors were engaged in fairly straightforward head-to-head competition.

These days we live in a world of global value chains, in which much of what any given nation imports consists not of consumer goods but of “intermediate” goods that it uses as part of its own production process.

在这样一个世界里,任何干扰进口的东西,无论是关税还是病毒,都会增加生产成本,从而影响制造业。事实上,美联储近期一份报告显示,特朗普政府的关税政策集中在中间商品上,已经减少了制造业的产出和就业。

In such a world, anything that disrupts imports — whether it’s tariffs or a virus — raises production costs, and as a result if anything hurts manufacturing.

Indeed, a recent study by the Federal Reserve found that Trump’s tariffs, which were concentrated on intermediate goods, have reduced, not increased, manufacturing output and employment.

第二讲:疫情对美国经济的影响,堪称贸易战极端版

克鲁格曼强调,疫情对美国经济的影响比贸易战更甚。

尽管2019年整体经济增长还算不错(虽然不是太好),但制造业正在处于衰退进程中。(贸易战带来的不确定性可能解释了这样一种现象,为什么大幅削减公司税,商业投资仍然在下降。)

…… while overall economic growth in 2019 was decent (not great), manufacturing is in a recession. (And the uncertainty created by the trade war may explain why business investment is down despite a huge cut in corporate taxes.)

我们可以这样说,如果这种病毒严重破坏了中国的生产,它对美国经济的影响堪称“贸易战的极端版本”。

What we can say is that if the virus seriously disrupts Chinese production, its impact on the US economy will be like an extreme version of Trump’s trade war…

结论

在克鲁格曼罗斯眼里,罗斯认为中国的疫情将“加速就业机会回流美国”,而这种观点只能证明两件事:第一,难怪《纽约时报》专栏作家盖尔·柯林斯的读者会将罗斯评为特朗普政府最差的成员;第二,难怪特朗普的贸易战打得如此失败。

Sure enough, Wilbur Ross, … to declare that he “didn’t want to talk about a victory lap,” but that the coronavirus “will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.” By saying this, he demonstrated a couple of things: (1) why Gail Collins’s readers voted him Trump’s worst cabinet member, and (2) why Trump’s trade war has been such a failure.

给挂科的罗斯补上一堂公共卫生学课

罗斯的冷血论调惹怒的不仅仅是美国经济学家,还有公共卫生学家。

据《华盛顿邮报》报道称,多位公共卫生学家均迅速出手怒批,罗斯的发言不仅不准确而且还危险。从新型冠状病毒疫情爆发以来,公共卫生部门的工作者努力防止虚假信息在社交媒体上的传播,从阴谋论到骗人的灵丹妙药。各个平台都在打压关乎健康的危险假信息的传播

But public health experts were quick to criticize Ross’s comments as inaccurate and dangerous, saying such messaging could suppress reports of new infections.

Meanwhile, health officials are up against the spread of false information on social media, from conspiracy theories to deceitful claims of magical cures. And Facebook, Google and Twitter are scrambling to crack down on the spread of dangerous health disinformation.

专家学者希望罗斯停止不负责任的论调。

要我看,罗斯已经不是人了。一有点钱,就没人性了,这简直是精神疾病。

这样的言论太可恶了!如果只是私下说说已经够糟糕了,他竟然还公开说?简直就是个魔鬼!

编辑:王瑜 胡雨濛来源:中国日报新媒体