Singapore cuts 2019 core inflation forecast as prices hit three year low

新加坡因物价触及三年低点，下调2019年核心通胀预期

Singapore’s core inflation eased to its slowest pace in more than three years in July, data showed on Friday, prompting authorities to downgrade their full-year forecast amid firming bets for monetary policy easing.

上周五公布的数据显示，新加坡7月份核心通胀率降至3年多来的最低水平，这促使有关部门下调了全年通胀预期，因为市场对货币政策放松的押注日益坚定。

The core inflation gauge rose 0.8% from a year earlier, the slowest rate since April 2016, weighed down by declines in utilities and retail prices. That was lower than a 1.0% forecast in a Reuters poll and 1.2% increase in the previous month.

受公用事业和零售价格下跌的拖累，核心通胀率同比上升0.8%，为2016年4月以来的最低水平。这低于路透调查预测的1.0%和上月1.2%的增幅。

Authorities said they expected core inflation – the preferred price gauge of the central bank which is due to meet in October – to be in the lower half of their 1%-2% forecast for 2019, having previously said it would come in the middle.

有关部门表示，他们预计核心通胀率将处于2019年1%-2%预测值的下半部分。此前，他们曾表示，核心通胀率将处于中间水平。

“This is further evidence of the weakened condition of the economy,” said Steve Cochrane, chief APAC economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“这是经济状况疲弱的进一步证据，”穆迪分析(Moody ‘s Analytics)亚太区首席经济学家史蒂夫•科克伦(Steve Cochrane)表示。

“This will likely raise expectations of monetary policy easing… Particularly as many central banks in the region have already begun to ease monetary policy.”

“这可能会提高人们对货币政策放松的预期……特别是在该地区许多央行已经开始放松货币政策的情况下。”

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said last week, after the city-state slashed its full-year growth forecast, that it was not considering an out-of-cycle policy move.

新加坡金融管理局(MAS)上周表示，在该国大幅下调全年增长预测后，它没有考虑采取非周期政策举措。

The Singapore dollar weakened after the data release, and was down around 0.2% against the U.S. dollar on the day SGD=.

数据公布后，新元走软，当日新元兑美元下跌约0.2%。

The headline consumer price index in July rose 0.4% year-on-year, matching January’s figures, the lowest so far in 2019. The poll had called for a 0.55% rise, compared with a 0.6% increase a month earlier.

7月份总体消费价格指数同比上涨0.4%，与1月份的数据持平，为2019年迄今的最低水平。该调查此前预计的增幅为0.55%，而一个月前的增幅为0.6%。

Singapore’s headline rate is expected to average 0.5%-1.5% for the full year, MAS and Singapore’s trade ministry said in a joint statement on Friday.

新加坡金融管理局(MAS)和新加坡贸易部周五在一份联合声明中表示，预计全年新加坡的总体利率将平均为0.5%-1.5%。

“An acceleration in inflationary pressures is unlikely against the backdrop of slower GDP growth, uncertainties in the global economy, as well as the continuing restraining effects of MAS’ monetary policy tightening in 2018,” the authorities said.

当局表示:“在国内生产总值(GDP)增长放缓、全球经济存在不确定性、以及金管局2018年收紧货币政策的持续抑制作用的背景下，通胀压力不太可能加速。”