四小龙的崛起和衰落

在惊人的增长之后，四小龙都在减速和老龄化。丹斯坦博克称，在没有重大政策变化的情况下，他们正面临相对的停滞。在《四小龙》(1992著)中，美国学者傅高义认为，四小龙——台湾、韩国、香港和新加坡——是新兴的工业化经济体，它们模仿日本的出口导向型增长模式走向繁荣……

The Rise and Decline of Four Little Dragons

四小龙的崛起和衰落After a stunning growth performance, all four dragons are slowing and aging. In the absence of drastic policy changes, they are facing relative stagnation, says Dan Steinbock.

在惊人的增长之后，四小龙都在减速和老龄化。丹斯坦博克称，在没有重大政策变化的情况下，他们正面临相对的停滞。

In The Four Little Dragons (1992), U.S. academic Ezra Vogel argued that the four little dragons—Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore—were the newly-industrialized economies, which had followed Japan’s export-led growth model to prosperity. Unlike major advanced economies, which established their position in a century or two, the four dragons made their mark in just a few decades.

在《四小龙》(1992著)中，美国学者傅高义认为，四小龙——台湾、韩国、香港和新加坡——是新兴的工业化经济体，它们模仿日本的出口导向型增长模式走向繁荣。与主要发达经济体不同的是，四小龙在短短几十年内就取得了成功。

Today, the dragons’ world looks very different. There is a common denominator behind Hong Kong’s economic and political malaise, Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen’s effort to lean on the Trump White House, South Korea’s mass demonstrations to impeach President Park Geun-hye, and Singapore’s Future Committee’s attempt to accelerate economic growth.

今天，四小龙的世界看起来非常不同。香港的经济和政治问题背后有一个共同的特征，而台湾“总统”蔡英文努力依靠特朗普的白宫，韩国发生了大规模示威活动弹劾总统朴槿惠，新加坡的未来委员会努力试图加速经济增长。

Political friction usually follows aging and slowing. That’s the common denominator.

政治摩擦通常伴随着老龄化和经济放缓。通常都是如此。

Rise of dragons

龙之崛起

Some half a century ago, the four dragons began extraordinary rapid industrialization starting with Hong Kong’s textile industry in the 60s, followed by export-oriented industrialization in Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore, modernization and export expansion in Kuomintang’s Taiwan, and Park Chung-hee’s South Korea. From the early 1960s to the 90s, the dragons enjoyed high growth rates. In the process, they leapt “From the Third World to the First” within one generation, as Lee later put it.

大约半个世纪之前，四小龙以香港纺织业在60年代的发展为开端开始了非凡的快速工业化，随后是李光耀管理的新加坡的出口导向型工业化、国民党台湾的现代化和出口扩张，以及朴正熙的韩国。从20世纪60年代初到90年代，四小龙的增长率都很高。在这一过程中，就像李光耀后来说的那样，他们在一代人的时间里“从第三世界进入到第一世界”。

In 1960, Hong Kong, the first dragon to begin the catch-up, still led in average living standards; it was only 20 percent behind Japan, followed by Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea. But Hong Kong remained more than 30 percent behind U.S. In the weakest dragon, South Korea, living standards were barely 10 percent of those in America.

在1960年，第一条开始追赶之路的龙-香港，在平均生活水平上依然领先;其生活水平仅仅比日本低20%，其次是新加坡、台湾和韩国。但香港的生活水平仍然比美国低超过30%，而最弱的韩国生活水平仅为美国的10%。

As the toughest phase of industrialization was achieved by 1980, little dragons were still led by Hong Kong. Although trade-friction between the U.S. and Japan was about to dominate headlines, living standards in Hong Kong were now only 25 percent behind those in Japan, but still 45 percent behind those in U.S.

在1980年实现工业化的最艰难阶段，四小龙仍由香港领导。尽管美国和日本之间的贸易摩擦即将成为头条新闻，但香港的生活水平在当时仅落后于日本25%，但仍落后于美国45%。

Usually, most economies’ internal engines decelerate after industrialization associated high growth. However, the four dragons were in the right place in the right time and made the right growth choices. As China – the ultimate dragon – began its economic reforms and opening-up policies, the little dragons’ went overdrive that supported their growth another three decades.

通常情况下，大多数经济体的内部增长引擎在与工业化相关的高速增长过后会减速。然而，四小龙在正确的时间出现在了正确的位置，并做出了正确的增长选择。随着中国——最终的龙——开始其经济改革和开放政策，又支撑了四小龙继续高速发展了另一个30年。

Today, living standards in all dragons, except for South Korea, are relatively higher than in Japan, which has been overwhelmed by economic stagnation. Intriguingly, living standards in Singapore are now on average 35 percent higher than those in America; which Hong Kong has caught up with as well.

今天，除韩国外，四小龙的另外三个的生活水平都比日本高，日本已经被经济停滞所淹没。有趣的是，新加坡的平均生活水平现在比美国高35%;香港也赶上来了。

But easy catch-up growth is behind.

但容易追赶的增长已经过去了。

Shaky short-term prospects

晦暗不明的短期前景

In 2017, Singapore hopes growth of 2-3 percent, although analysts expect it to stay below 2 percent. Despite a strong last quarter in 2016, it is coping with economic malaise. Trade outlook is uncertain, due to new protectionism and regional tensions. Like Hong Kong, Singapore must also cope with the Fed’s hikes amid a tight labor market and softening property sector. It is seeking new growth not just in China and emerging Asia but via economic integration with Malaysia and Riau.

在2017年，新加坡希望增长2- 3%，然而分析师预计它的增长速度将保持在2%以下。尽管在2016年的最后一个季度表现强劲，但它仍在应对经济低迷的状况。由于新的贸易保护主义和地区紧张局势，贸易前景并不确定。与香港一样，新加坡也必须应对美联储在劳动力市场紧缩和房地产市场疲软的情况下的加息。它不仅在中国和亚洲新兴市场寻求新的增长，而且还通过与马来西亚和廖内省的经济整合来谋求增长。

Despite improved prospects, Hong Kong ‘ growth is about 2.0 percent. Its future is overshadowed by political angst. Even more than Singapore, it is exposed to global liquidity swings, US trade protectionism and China’s rebalancing in the region. But unlike Singapore, Hong Kong has missed or continues to shun pro-growth integration opportunities. Failures in leadership are illustrated by the misconduct of former chief executive Donald Tsang and the weakness of his successor CY Leung.

尽管前景有所改善，香港的经济增长率只有约2.0%。政治焦虑笼罩着它的未来。甚至比新加坡形势更严峻，它也暴露在全球流动性波动、美国贸易保护主义和中国在该地区的再平衡中。但与新加坡不同的是，香港已经错过或继续回避了能够支持增长的整合机会。前任行政长官曾荫权的不当行为以及继任者梁振英的软弱，说明了其领导层的失败。

South Korea’s growth rate has been cut to 2.8 percent, but economic momentum has moderated. Neither foreign trade, which is constrained by international environment, nor domestic demand, which suffers from indebted households, has been adequate to support strong growth. While rising inflation may generate a hike by the Bank of Korea, Seoul must cope with Chinese deceleration and U.S. protectionism and Washington could also target it for alleged currency manipulation.

韩国的经济增长率已降至2.8%，但经济势头有所缓和。无论是受到国际环境制约的对外贸易，还是来自负债家庭的国内需求，都不足以支撑强劲的增长。尽管通胀上升可能会导致韩国央行加息，但韩国政府必须应对中国的经济增长减速和美国的保护主义，美国政府也可能将所谓的汇率操纵的矛头对准韩国。

Despite improved forecasts, Taiwanese growth rate for 2017 is estimated at 1.8 percent. Like Hong Kong, it is struggling with economic and political malaise; the former derive from maturation, the latter are largely self-induced. Thanks to growing political uncertainty, investment contraction could follow in due time, especially if friction with China will weigh on trade and investment.

尽管预测有所改善，但台湾2017年的经济增长率预计也只有为1.8%。与香港一样，它也正面临经济和政治上的困境;前者源于经济成熟，后者主要是自我原因导致的。由于政治上的不确定性增加，投资收缩可能会适时出现，特别是如果与中国的摩擦将对贸易和投资造成压力时。

Today, dragons are steadily aging and slowing, as evidenced by steady and occasionally steep deceleration of growth in each.

如今，四小龙龙正在稳步老龄化和减速，证据是各个小龙的增长速度都很稳定，偶尔也会有急剧减速。

Slowing growth

经济增长放缓

The four dragons are aging. With demographic transition, birth and death rates are slowing, as evidenced by rise of median age. Among major advanced economies, it is highest in Japan and Germany (47), which are facing population decline. Among the dragons, it is highest in Hong Kong (43), followed by South Korea (41), Taiwan (40) and Singapore (40).

四小龙正在老龄化。随着人口结构的转变，出生率和死亡率都在放缓，这一点可以从年龄中位数的增长来证明。在主要发达经济体中，日本和德国(47)的人口数量都在下降。在四小龙中，香港是排名最高的(43)，其次是韩国(41)，台湾(40)和新加坡(40)。

Worse, average living standards tend to mask broadening income polarization in the four dragons. Among major advanced economies, income inequality, as measured by Gini coefficient, is the highest in the US (45), but significantly lower in Japan (32), France and Germany (less than 30). Among the dragons, it is highest in the financial hubs of Hong Kong (54) and Singapore (46), as opposed to high-tech giants Taiwan (34) and South Korea (30).

更糟糕的是，平均生活水平往往掩盖了四小龙收入分化的扩大。在主要发达经济体中，以基尼系数衡量的收入不平等为：美国最高(45)，但在日本(32)、法国和德国(不到30)基尼指数显著下降。在四小龙中，作为金融中心的香港(54)和新加坡(46)基尼指数是最高的，高科技巨头台湾(34)和韩国(30)的情况则与之相反。

In the long-run, high living standards require solid growth and strong productivity, which usually rely on sustained innovation. Most dragons are driven by technology innovation, as reflected by their R&D per GDP. It is relatively highest in the world in South Korea (4.3%), and in the top league in Singapore (3.2%) and Taiwan (3%), which have bypassed the U.S. and Western Europe. However, Hong Kong (0.7%) is the great laggard.

从长远来看，高标准的生活水平需要坚实的经济增长和强劲的生产力，这通常依赖于持续的创新。四小龙中的大多数都是由技术创新驱动的，这反映在他们研发费用在国内生产总值中的占比上。韩国的这一比例在世界上相对最高(4.3%)、新加坡(3.2%)和台湾(3%)也在最高的梯队中，他们的研发占比也超过了美国和西欧。然而，香港(0.7%)却是大大的落后。

All four dragons need great structural reforms and inclusive pro-growth policies, including greater productivity, innovation and R&D investments; more dynamic competition and new enterprises; higher retirement ages, accelerated skill-based immigration, drastically reduced policy barriers to female labor participation; and greater efficiency of public spending. A greater stress on human capital also requires more progressive taxation, aggressive measures to reduce income inequality; and adequate job protection legislation.

四小龙都需要巨大的结构改革和包容性的促增长政策，包括更强的生产力、更多的创新和研发投资;更具活力的竞争者和新企业;提高退休年龄，加快技能移民，大幅减少女性劳工参与工作的政策障碍;提高公共支出的效率。更大的人力资本压力也要求更多的税收，更积极的措施来减少收入不平等;以及充分的就业保护立法。

Finally, as the dragons’ internal growth engines are slowing, they must aggressively seek greater integration opportunities, especially through greater economic integration regionally and international trading arrangements.

最后，由于四小龙的内部增长引擎正在放缓，它们必须积极寻求更大的整合机会，特别是通过更大程度的区域和国际贸易经济一体化协定。

In the absence of such changes, all four dragons could face creeping stagnation.

如果没有这种变化，四小龙都可能面临缓慢的增长停滞。